As Lebanon burns, self-serving leaders must rise to the challenge
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Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has long been considered a friend of Hezbollah and Syria, so people were pleasantly surprised last week when he issued a rare rebuke of Iran for “blatant interference in Lebanese affairs.” Iran's parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf had declared that Tehran would be ready to “negotiate” with the West to implement UN Resolution 1701 in southern Lebanon, as though the country were a mere playing card to be negotiated over.
With Israel pointing its missiles toward Tehran, it is striking to witness the ayatollahs being so brazen about their ability to manipulate regional developments – even under the supposedly moderate presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian. Meanwhile, it is depressing to witness the timidity of the Lebanese government in failing to act to curtail blatant Iranian interference. As a result of naked personal ambitions, Christian leaders are failing to unite to steer events in a positive direction, while Sunnis remain utterly leaderless. National salvation takes second place to ambitions of capturing the presidency.
These Christian rivalries were on display for all to see in recent days when Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea hosted a meeting to discuss developments, attended by representatives of various communities, but from which Christian leaders such as Suleiman Frangieh, Samy Gemayel and Gebran Bassil distanced themselves. How can we have any sort of political roadmap when the key protagonists aren’t even talking to each other?
The notable presence of Iranian commanders at the scene of most of Israel’s assassinations of Hezbollah leaders caused people to conclude that, with the loss of the entire top echelons of Hezbollah, it is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that is increasingly directing this fight in Hezbollah’s name.
Although Israeli losses in south Lebanon already appear to have been relatively heavy, we are talking about an enemy perfectly willing to destroy 100 villages for every 10 soldiers killed, and Lebanese fatalities have already soared to over 2,400, with tens of thousands injured. A radically diminished Hezbollah appears to be pulling its punches because it knows its weapons stockpiles may not be replenished. When the two sides are so woefully mismatched, Hezbollah’s pinprick attacks simply reap infinitely greater pain upon Lebanon itself. The Assad and Putin regimes recently demanded that Hezbollah and paramilitary affiliates move away from airports and other sensitive sites in Syria. If these entities have become persona non-grata even among their closest allies, they should ponder about what privileges their beholdenness to Iran really buys them.
As the conflict grinds on, there is only one conceivable outcome: Lebanon’s utter destruction. Hassan Nasrallah knew this, and Iran clearly knows it too. Lebanon is stuck in the middle of an ideological battle within Iran itself, between hard-line generals aspiring to dominate Arab states in perpetuity and government ministers who want to exploit Lebanon as a cheap bargaining chip for securing sanctions reduction, nuclear concessions, or guarantees that Israel won’t attack Tehran. This is not Lebanon’s fight, and there is no victory to be had. Hezbollah’s continuing rhetoric about the resistance standing firm and imposing losses upon the enemy is nonsense talk for consumption by its shrinking pool of grassroots supporters.
With US envoy Amos Hochstein talking about “additions” and “amendments” to Resolution 1701, there will probably be intensive renewed pressure for disarmament of Hezbollah and perhaps a permanent Israeli presence in south Lebanon, or a more muscular mandate for the UN peaekeeping force — with Lebanon by any standards coming out of this the broken and defeated party, the US and Israel may be free to impose whatever conditions they desire at the cost of Lebanese sovereignty.
With Israeli strikes spreading to almost the entirety of Lebanon, around a quarter of the population has already been displaced. That most of the displaced are from traditionally pro-Hezbollah areas is exacerbating social tensions, with some calls for excluding refugees from non-Shiite districts. Israel appears to be calculatedly striking Christian-majority villages with the goal of stirring sectarian tensions and discouraging residents from receiving displaced people for fear of being targeted themselves. Israel’s drone strike against a Hezbollah operative in the Christian heartland of Jouneh sent a strident message that nowhere is safe.
We should guard against those doing Israel’s work for it in exacerbating sectarian tensions, pitting Lebanese against each other, and dividing the country into cantons — dragging us back to the mentality of the civil war era, or even triggering civil conflict. All this goes against the prevailing national spirit in a country that already had proportionately the highest refugee population in the world. A generation of young people had their political awakening during the 2019 anti-sectarian protests. Such attitudes have led to young Sunnis, Christians and Druze volunteering en masse in shelters, community kitchens and hospitals for assisting displaced citizens.
Lebanon is too small to be fragmented. Its status quo is too precarious to remain without president or effective government. The ongoing catastrophe nevertheless offers unprecedented opportunities to reconceptualize Lebanese politics, within a non-sectarian system that prioritizes functioning, effective and responsive government for the benefit of all citizens.
With all districts of Lebanon now subjected to attack, Christian and other leaders should not be passively sitting on their hands, issuing empty statements to the media. All sides must put aside personal and factional aspirations and establish a united front for the sake of national salvation.
This is not Lebanon’s fight, but that doesn’t mean Lebanon’s leaders can’t come together to stave off the country’s utter destruction in this unwinnable and vengeful conflict, before the country loses its sovereignty and identity altogether.
Lebanon can be saved, but only if those leaders who have failed, harmed and neglected their country so often in the past rise to this challenge and bring this beautiful, traumatized nation back together.
- Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.
